Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

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Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Supercooper » Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:44 pm

Hi,

I want to ask about exoplanets. I have made a video that fully explains why I have this problem - I don't believe that they have found ANY, never mind the hundreds that they claim.

I'm not bonkers - I just cannot understand how they can have found even one - If you follow the maths in the video I prove that the chances of seeing one transit of an exoplanet is in the order of a MINIMUM of 11 Trillion to one. Those are very long odds!

Does anyone have compelling proof that these are real?

Please, watch my video and ask yourself if I've missed something crucial. If I have, please tell me, but don't expect me to believe it just because someone 'says' it is so. This is science and we must have irrefutable proof.

YouTube Video of Mine: Has been removed following satisfactory reworking by the author!

Thanks for watching, Barry.
Last edited by Supercooper on Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Gfamily2 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 10:40 pm

Here you go, have some science.

https://web.archive.org/web/20090825002 ... acter.html

You've misunderstood the circumstances under which a transit is visible from a very distant observer.
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Supercooper » Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:37 am

Hi, - The chance of a transit happening while you're watching is 11 trillions to one - I think that comes under the banner of 'unlikely' - And yet, there are observatories reporting multiple sightings! Doesn't add up... Because the Earth would move out of the line of sight after a few million miles it's very unlikely we would see two transits and yet they see repeat transits on the same system for months! Nope, not buying it. How they detect these transits has not been explained clearly enough.

I used all the data in your suggested equasions in my calculations, thank you my scientific friend, and my video has all these elements taken care of.

The only thing that I can think of that would allow so many discoveries would be if all the planets in the galaxy were aligned to the same orientation! Seems unlikely having watched SaN PLanet 9 - Even our own Solar System doesn't have all the planets in anything like the same plane!

Cheers, Barry

Multiple edits because (All of the above - I haven't taken anything out, just changed the wording) was aparrently spammy!
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Gfamily2 » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:18 am

Did you read the part of the article that discussed Geometric Probability?

Ratherl
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Supercooper » Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:19 am

Ah!

I've done some more work on my model and found that I forgot to take parallax into account. A planet as close as Mercury to a Star the size of the sun (Or any system with the same angles) would have about 3.5 degrees of visibility! That's a bit better than 0.005".

So, rather than 130,000,000:1, the chance of an orbit crossing the star becomes 130,000,000/60/60/3.5 or approx. 1:10,000 - Which is a much more acceptible figure! I believe they look at about that number of stars per night.

OK - Thanks for prompting me to revisit my initial calculations. What I'd not taken into account is that although the planet has to be aligned with an accuracy of 0.005" of arc - From the other end the cone of visibility radiates at about 6.6 degrees! (Minus the grazing zone)

I'd fallen into the trap of working from the Earth looking out and looking at the probability of the planet being in line of sight of the star. Very small chance! If you look at it from the star end, there's quite a big parallax, so the transit can be seen from a much wider area than you might think.

I'm sorted - I'm going off now to remove the video and burn it :D

Ha! I've just reallised that my working would work for total stellar eclipses, where the planet was the same size as the star - :lol:

In the diagram below I have used 75% of the Solar surface as representing the 'useable and detectable transits' as noted in the information website. Hense, the entire disc of the Sun is not included in the angle! (Use your slider bar at bottom to see the whole!)
Barry
Attachments
Parallax.jpg
Scale diagram Mercury / Sun showing parallax angle.
Parallax.jpg (46.51 KiB) Viewed 2976 times
Last edited by Supercooper on Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby voyager » Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:57 am

Supercooper wrote:I'm sorted - I'm going off now to remove the video and burn it :D
Barry


It was an excellent video nonetheless - well thought out and presented. Ironically, I knew the answer but I felt you were trolling with your opening sentence ("I don't believe that they have found ANY") and thus didn't respond. :lol:
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Re: Dumbing UP! A serious question from a serious amateur.

Postby Supercooper » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:04 pm

I wan't Trolling, beyond trying to solicit a response to my question. My flawed working out suggested that the probability of finding even one exoplanet was 'astronomical - Pardon the pun.

I think something that I had got hung up on is transits of Mercury and Venus are rare. But what I hadn't taken into consideration is that they are only rare to us BECAUSE we're stuck on the Earth. They are always in transit as viewed from somewhere in the Universe!

Thanks for your comments :o)

Barry
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