The huge sunspot region that led to the incredible aurora display of early May 2024 has rotated back round to face Earth, meaning we could be in for another geomagnetic storm this weekend.
Solar activity continues to ramp up as the Sun reaches the peak of the solar cycle.
The solar cycle is the name given to the pattern of peaks and troughs in solar activity that are manifested in the form of sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
At times the Sun is quiet and inactive, but then every 11 years or so, activity begins to ramp up, leading to multiple strong outbursts from the solar surface.
Our Sun is currently going through Solar Cycle 25 and is expected to reach the peak of this cycle within the next year.
This has led to increased geomagnetic storms and aurora displays, which is why both solar scientists and aurora chasers are keeping a keen eye on what's going on at the Sun's surface.
The huge sunspot region responsible for the 10 May aurora display was named AR 3664, and it resulted in some extreme solar flares in early May.
Like Earth and the rest of the Solar System planets, the Sun rotates on its axis.
AR 3664 rotated away from Earth after the aurora display of early May, but has now made its journey around the Sun and reappeared, renamed AR 3697.
Solar flare and the chance of aurora
NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded videos of solar flares in the run-up to the 10 May aurora, including solar flares on 8 and 9 May.
And the Space Weather Prediction Center says Region 3697 produced a strong X1 solar flare on 29 May at 10:40 EDT (14:40 UTC).
'X' denotes it's among the most intense types of flare that erupt from the Sun.
This region, along with AR 3691, was responsible for solar flares between 8 - 15 May 2024 and the aurora displays over that period.
These active regions on the Sun are likely to continue flaring as we head into the weekend.
Region 3697 (formerly 3664) generated an X8.7 solar flare on 14 May that is the largest recorded of Solar Cycle 25 so far.
These regions rotated away from Earth but have returned and, while they aren't as big as they were earlier in May, are still very much active.
What's more, the Space Weather Prediction Center says a coronal mass ejection X1 flare produced by Region 3697 on 29 May is likely to enhance Earth's magnetic field on 31 May into 1 June, and could cause a geomagnetic storm and auroral displays.
The UK Met Office space weather forecast has also noted the strong flare of 29 May, stating that solar activity has reached high levels over the last 24 hours.
Does this mean we'll see a spectacular aurora display similar to what we saw on 10 May?
It currently seems unlikely that any aurora display would be as intense or as far-reaching as we saw earlier in May, but there's a chance that geomagnetic activity could reach G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storm levels.
This means it could be worth keeping an eye on your aurora prediction websites and apps over the weekend, in case there happens to be a display near you.
If you do manage to observe or photograph an aurora display, get in touch via contactus@skyatnightmagazine.com
