An old Soviet spacecraft that was originally destined for Venus could fall to Earth this weekend, according to NASA.
The probe, named Kosmos 482, was launched on 31 March 1972 and was intended to enter Venus's atmosphere, to enable scientists to learn more about the mysterious planet.
But its lander, weighing about 500kg, got stuck in orbit around Earth, where it has remained until now.
More Cold War spaceflight
NASA says Kosmos 482's orbit is 'decaying', meaning it's getting closer and closer to Earth, and is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere some time between 9–11 May 2025.
Currently, it's thought the probe could land anywhere between latitudes 52° North and 52° South.
That's essentially most of the populated landmass of Earth, stretching from as far north as London, UK – or just north of the USA-Canada border – to as far south as the tip of South America.
Should we be worried?
Satellites and space probes re-enter Earth orbit on a regular basis, and don't cause much trouble because the majority of Earth is covered in water, so the probability of them crashing in a populated area is low.
As well as this, most satellites and space probes are unable to withstand re-entry into Earth's atmosphere, burning up and breaking apart as they do so.
However, Venus is a toxic, poisonous, scorching planet with an atmosphere about 93 times thicker than Earth's
So any spacecraft designed to survive entry into Venus's atmosphere could likely survive entry into Earth's atmosphere.
What's more, its parachute will have degraded over the past 50 years.
NASA says of Kosmos 482: "The time and location of atmospheric reentry should be known more accurately over the next few days, but the uncertainty will be fairly significant right up to reentry."
The European Space Agency says re-entry is likely to occur on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 07:12 UTC (08:12 BST / 03:12 EDT).
Space scientists say the risk of harm to human life from Kosmos 482 crashing on Earth remains low.
A European Space Agency blog about the space probe says "the risk of any satellite reentry causing injury is extremely remote.
"The annual risk of an individual human being injured by space debris is under 1 in 100 billion. In comparison, a person is about 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning."
Kosmos 482 explained
In Soviet spaceflight history, the 1970s was the era of the Venera programme, a series of uncrewed missions to explore Venus, the second planet from the Sun.
Venus is a toxic, scorching and inhospitable world, and so landing a spacecraft on the planet is much more risky than landing one on Mars.
The Soviets had launched Venera 8 on 27 March 1972, and it was a successful mission, beaming back valuable information about Venus to scientists on Earth.
However, four days later the Soviets launched the spacecraft that would become known as Kosmos 482.
It comprised a carrier bus and lander, the latter weighing about 495kg.
Once it reached Venus, the spacecraft was to deploy a parachute and descend, capturing data on the planet's temperature, pressure and other atmospheric properties.
But Kosmos 482 failed to escape low Earth orbit.
NASA says the Soviets attempted to launch the spacecraft from Earth orbit into a trajectory that would take it to Venus.
It's thought the spacecraft didn't achieve the required thrust to escape Earth's gravitational pull, and separated into four pieces.
Two of those pieces remained in low Earth orbit and were eventually destroyed, while two remaining pieces went into a higher orbit.
The lander has been orbiting Earth ever since, and is expected to crash to Earth on 10 May 2025.
Its name, Kosmos, was assigned to all Soviet spacecraft that remained in Earth orbit, NASA says, regardless of whether or not that was their intended destination.
And so this particular probe, having not reached Venus and having remained in orbit around Earth, was duly assigned Kosmos 482.
Tracking and seeing Kosmos 482
It remains to be seen whether or not we'll be able to spot Kosmos 482 in the sky as it passes overhead, or when it re-enters Earth's atmosphere.
The probe could look like just another dim satellite in the sky, but may get brighter as it falls to Earth, should you happen to be located in the area where it's visible.
It is possible to track Kosmos 482 online, and there are a few websites that will help you do it, such as n2yo.com and www.heavens-above.com.
If you do manage to see Kosmos 482, or happen to capture an image of it, we'd love to hear from you. Get in touch by emailing contactus@skyatnightmagazine.com
